MUFG reports on the perfect storm on Indian Rupee

Sarah J · 2026-05-22T09:20:56.000Z

MUFG argues the Indian Rupee is vulnerable across multiple scenarios, with the immediate trigger being tension over the Strait of Hormuz. The note sees USD/INR moving toward 98.00 and even 100.00 if the Iran conflict prolongs, and forecasts the RBI hiking rates by 50bps to 5.75%, with risk scenarios reaching 6.25%–6.75%. Crucially, the bank's core thesis is that the weakness is structural, not just geopolitical - a problem of weak capital inflows that predates the conflict and will persist even if tensions ease. https://app.startupeuropeindia.net/news/indias-inr-under-pressure-a-perfect-storm-of-geopolitics-and-weak-flows

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MUFG reports on the perfect storm on Indian Rupee | SEINET